The current economic crisis has left many industries in ruins and millions without a job. As the recession moves forward, some have begun to wonder how the economy will affect crime. The question is age old, but still relevant: do people commit more crimes during times of economic hardship?

Over the last few years as the economy has worsened, crimes such as property theft have increased, most notably in 2006 when there was a large spike. In Great Britain, the police are fearful of protesting mobs. David Hartshorn, head of the Metropolitan Police, has said that “known activists” have been trying to start mass protests but simply haven’t had the numbers to pull off such an event.

“Obviously the downturn in the economy, unemployment, repossessions, changes that. Suddenly there is the opportunity for people to mass protest.”

According to the Police Executive Research Forum, in a survey taken place between December and January, 44% believe that the recent increase in crime is due to the recession.

However, the survey suggests that the problem is not that the unemployed are turning to crime, but that police departments are having a hard time finding funding: 63% of police departments are facing budget cuts, 88% of which have already been informed of such cuts by a governing authority. The average police department plans to cut its annual budget by 6.24 %.

The survey also states that 62% have cut overtime spending, and half of all departments rely on overtime to meet their minimum staffing levels. Around 50% of all departments have implemented a hiring freeze for non-sworn in personnel, and a quarter have extended it toward sworn-in positions. Half have said they have already cut back or eliminated plans to acquire technology. Additionally, half have said they have already cut back on training. Another 12% have said that they are considering laying off officers, or forcing retirements.

As part of the American Recovery Plan, the department of Justice is set to receive $4 billion in funding. According to the Department of Justice website, the money will be used to “enhance state, local, and tribal law enforcement efforts, including the hiring of new police officers, to combat violence against women, and to fight Internet crimes against children.”

Of the $4 billion, up to $1 billion has been allocated for the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services for their Hiring Recovery Program, which will employ an estimated 5,500 police officers.

“Supporting the hiring of police nationwide will help States and communities prevent the growth of crime during the economic downturn,” said the Office of Management and Budget in the government’s budget proposals.

In addition to the above, over $2 billion will be set aside for the Edward Byrne Justice Assistance Grant, to help local and state crime prevention organizations. To combat violence against women, $225 million will be given to the S.T.O.P. (Services-Training-Officers-Prosecutors) Violence Against Women, and Transitional Housing Assistance programs.

The last one may prove to be well funded as cases of domestic abuse and violence against women may rise during periods of unemployment. In a commentary piece for the Boston Globe, Mary R. Lauby and Sue Else write, “Economic stresses often lead to more frequent abuse, more violent abuse, and more dangerous abuse when domestic violence already exists.” Theorizing that the unemployed have more opportunity to abuse they comment that Rhode Island “has recently seen a 25 percent increase in felony-level domestic violence crimes.”

But more than anything, the presence of more officers could lower crime. In his book “The Tipping Point,” Malcolm Gladwell suggests that the rise in crime during the 1980s in New York City was due to a lack of police visibility. He cites the Broken Windows theory.

This theory is that if a window is left unbroken, people will assume that the rules are being relaxed and act accordingly. During the early 90’s the police started fighting graffiti, subway fare beating, public urination, and panhandling. He suggests that as the police began to enforce minor laws, the major crimes began to decline rapidly.

“Muggers and robbers, whether opportunistic or professional, believe they reduce their chances of being caught or even identified if they operate on streets where potential victims are already intimidated by prevailing conditions. If the neighborhood cannot keep a bothersome panhandler from annoying passersby, the thief may reason, it is even less likely to call the police to identify a potential mugger or to interfere if the mugging actually takes place.”

Of course other questions remain. Will we see a significant rise in crime? And if so, how can we be sure that the police departments will properly use their funding, or if congress is simply throwing money at the problem? Either way it seems that crime may be just one more thing to dread in these economic times.